Cyclone Arnab Threatens India’s East Coast After a Quiet Storm Season

Cyclone Arnab is forecast to bring heavy rain and potential crop damage to India’s east coast, ending a subdued stretch of storm activity in the North Indian Ocean. For insurers and businesses exposed to weather losses, the immediate concern is the storm’s uncertain path and the rain it may deliver across several countries.

As of the report, Arnab was 859 kilometers (534 miles) southwest of Kolkata, with sustained winds of 213 kilometers per hour. The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center equated that wind speed to a Category 4 hurricane. The system was expected to strengthen before reaching the coast on Wednesday, but forecast models differed on whether it would stall before or after landfall. That uncertainty makes the eventual footprint difficult to pin down: the location and duration of the heaviest rain can shape which communities, farms and businesses face the greatest exposure.

Rainfall could affect crops and plantations

The India Meteorological Department forecast moderate to intense rainfall in parts of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. It also warned of possible widespread damage to standing crops and plantations, including banana, papaya and drumstick trees. Heavy rain can affect agricultural operations directly, while flooding or prolonged waterlogging may create further problems for access, harvesting and the condition of growing crops. The source does not quantify potential losses, and the storm’s final track remains unsettled.

Forecasts also indicated possible deluges in Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. That widens the area to watch beyond the expected coastal impact in India. For insurers and risk managers, a storm’s effects may cross borders through damage to farms, transport and local commerce, although the scale of any such effects will depend on where the rain falls and how long it persists.

For policyholders and businesses in the forecast areas, the practical questions are specific to their policies and operations: what property or crop losses are covered, what exclusions apply, and what records may be needed if damage occurs. The source does not describe coverage terms or claim procedures, so those details cannot be assumed to be the same across policies. The forecast does, however, make the potential exposure clear: rainfall and wind may affect crops and plantations across multiple locations.

El Niño is reshaping activity across basins

Arnab stands out against a quiet recent period in the North Indian Ocean, where storm activity has been significantly below average and it is the first cyclonic storm of the season. Climate patterns this year have produced very different conditions in other basins. The Atlantic is projected to record one of its lowest hurricane counts since 1941, while the Northwest Pacific is on course for one of its most intense typhoon seasons on record.

Christian Werner, managing director of Global Weather Climate Analytics, attributed the reduced activity in the North Indian Ocean to El Niño’s suppression of the Indian monsoon. “One of the key climatic events has been the suppression of the Indian monsoon and with it, the much reduced tropical cyclone activity, driven by the long reach of the El Niño,” he said.

The contrast matters for anyone interpreting seasonal activity. A quieter run of storms in one basin does not describe conditions worldwide, and a low count does not rule out a powerful storm. Arnab is a reminder that a single cyclone can still pose a serious local threat after an extended lull. For insurers, the number of storms is only one part of the risk picture; location, intensity, rainfall and the assets in the storm’s path also matter.

Season timing adds context

North Indian Ocean storms tend to peak in two windows: April through June, before the monsoon, and October through December, after it. Arnab’s expected late October arrival falls within the latter period. That seasonal pattern gives forecasters and risk teams useful context, but it does not determine the course or impact of an individual storm.

The forecast may change as Arnab approaches land. Its possible strengthening, the disagreement among models about whether it will stall, and the prospect of heavy rain across several countries are the main developments to monitor. For affected policyholders and businesses, the useful next step is to follow local forecasts and check the terms and documentation requirements that apply to their own coverage.

Sources: Atlantic storm activity, North Indian Ocean activity, Christian Werner and North Indian Ocean storm season timing. Related: Super El Niño and weather risk.